Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 1.294629 1.511136 1.752265 2.040693 2.376341 2.754672 3.213609
2024-12-15 0.945726 1.233197 1.589762 2.064444 2.680011 3.451750 4.493822
2024-12-22 0.724287 1.021916 1.420448 1.992946 2.794697 3.878633 5.457871
2024-12-29 0.641055 0.964215 1.424633 2.128112 3.176595 4.683336 7.017878
2025-01-05 0.529329 0.841571 1.311003 2.067644 3.257841 5.061014 8.007622
2025-01-12 0.441859 0.738244 1.205783 1.996277 3.301118 5.373468 8.924868
2025-01-19 0.374909 0.655427 1.117787 1.934399 3.342933 5.678275 9.857700
2025-01-26 0.337851 0.615886 1.093095 1.970581 3.546761 6.265764 11.330278
2025-02-02 0.321220 0.608870 1.121574 2.100399 3.926303 7.194542 13.512945
2025-02-09 0.297083 0.584280 1.114757 2.164088 4.192613 7.952277 15.480669
2025-02-16 0.271631 0.553282 1.091441 2.192461 4.394251 8.612258 17.344884
2025-02-23 0.246042 0.518200 1.055293 2.190015 4.533666 9.167136 19.069586
2025-03-02 0.222174 0.484015 1.017884 2.183017 4.669234 9.743379 20.941067
2025-03-09 0.203587 0.458426 0.994857 2.203335 4.865526 10.470221 23.232354
2025-03-16 0.178971 0.416098 0.930892 2.126800 4.843756 10.738127 24.572668
2025-03-23 0.174828 0.419038 0.965013 2.270987 5.326286 12.146727 28.622758
2025-03-30 0.155685 0.384454 0.910830 2.206477 5.325847 12.486599 30.279170
2025-04-06 0.138127 0.351114 0.855037 2.130341 5.287365 12.733491 31.747597
2025-04-13 0.123301 0.322361 0.806257 2.064326 5.263900 13.011209 33.325625
2025-04-20 0.116048 0.311737 0.800022 2.102927 5.503903 13.949981 36.669555
2025-04-27 0.114588 0.315985 0.831340 2.241421 6.015793 15.620926 42.102946
2025-05-04 0.109537 0.309914 0.835491 2.309365 6.352844 16.892031 46.659534
2025-05-11 0.103124 0.299201 0.826085 2.339633 6.593181 17.942412 50.763830